When we speak of a “ChatGPT moment,” what comes to mind? I’m delving into Tesla’s Full Self-Driving (FSD) advancements and the recent fluctuations in its stock value, sharing my very different perspective on Tesla’s FSD technology.
Unveiling Tesla’s ChatGPT Moment: Beyond Full Self-Driving and Stock Volatility
Consider Tesla not just as a car manufacturer but as an AI and data juggernaut. Take Apple as an analogy; its revenue streams flow not solely from device sales but significantly from its App Store. In a parallel vein, Tesla’s FSD could be its golden goose, akin to Apple’s App Store. Let’s explore FSD a bit more.
Tesla: An AI and Data Behemoth in Disguise
FSD, or Full Self-Driving technology, has been a topic of much discussion, with Elon Musk painting a visionary future of robot taxis powered by FSD. Yet, reality paints a contrasting picture where Tesla seems to lag behind its rival, Waymo, which has already launched “autonomous” taxi services in four US cities. My use of quotes around “autonomous” will be clarified shortly. From an investment standpoint, Tesla appears to trail behind Waymo, especially since Waymo has navigated through regulatory hoops and launched its services to the public. This discrepancy was evident in Tesla’s Q4 2023 financial report, which highlighted less-than-expected FSD revenues. As a Tesla customer, the current version of FSD doesn’t seem worth the investment. But is Waymo truly ahead, or is the reality more nuanced?
Waymo vs. Tesla: A Technological Divide in Autonomous Driving
The core difference between Waymo and Tesla’s approach to autonomous driving lies in the technology. Waymo relies on a combination of LiDAR, RADAR, and cameras, requiring detailed mapping of every road, intersection, and traffic signal. This mapping allows Waymo vehicles to pinpoint their exact location and navigate safely. Hence, my earlier “autonomous” quotation marks, as Waymo’s method depend heavily on pre-mapped environments, making spontaneous drives in unmapped areas impossible. Despite the effectiveness of Waymo’s traditional approach to taxis, the high cost of sensors could make personal ownership unfeasible. Would you pay for an extra car on top of your car?
Elon Musk’s Vision-Driven Approach to Autonomy
Elon Musk’s strategy with Tesla, grounded in first principles, posits that if humans can drive using vision, so can cars. This principle explains why Tesla’s FSD performs better on highways, where driving conditions are more predictable than in cities, where it struggles with the unpredictability of urban environments.
Data, The Fuel for Tesla’s FSD Evolution
Tesla has amassed an enormous dataset from real-world driving, thanks to the popularity of its Model 3 and Y vehicles. By the end of last year, Tesla had collected approximately 800 million miles of driving data to refine its FSD technology (see report) . This vast dataset is reminiscent of the data required by OpenAI to develop ChatGPT. Tesla stands as perhaps the only company with enough data to train a fully autonomous driving system. The recent FSD Beta 12 release, which saw the deletion of 300,000 lines of code, marks a significant leap towards achieving a fully autonomous driving system, moving closer to Tesla’s ChatGPT moment. The rapid accumulation of data allowed Tesla to achieve this milestone, begging the question: How far is Tesla from revolutionizing autonomous driving?
Navigating the Regulatory Maze of Autonomous Driving
Autonomous driving presents unique challenges, with regulation at the forefront. Demonstrating that a machine can outperform a human in driving is a monumental task. Autonomous vehicles take the wheel on our behalf, unlike tools like ChatGPT that assist with tasks but leave room for human verification. The stakes are considerably higher; there’s no margin for error in autonomous driving because it’s a matter of life and death. This hurdle is formidable. Should Full Self-Driving (FSD) face setbacks, what alternatives does Tesla have?
Tesla Bot: Plan B?
Enter Tesla Bot, Tesla’s proposed safety net. Much like a companion, the Tesla Bot is designed to work alongside humans, akin to a child who might mistakenly use sugar instead of salt—a mistake you might forgive with time. While it may or may not lead the market, Tesla’s approach to the bot, leveraging their experience of end-to-end from their vehicle directly into the Tesla bot. So Tesla bot has already stepped on the shoulders of giants. Tesla aims for a quicker, more efficient path to market. We all have seen a video of Boston dynamics of 40 years of development video.(https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_EZQx87DyzM).
In conclusion, I’ve aimed to present a balanced view of Tesla’s technological endeavours, stepping beyond the confines of financial analysis to explore the profound impacts of its innovations. What are your thoughts on Tesla’s trajectory?